CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index
August 2023 Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: JULY 2023 DATA
CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past three years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.
As of August 1, 2023, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found:
Overall, used cars had an average price of $31,529 in July 2023, down $320 (or 1%) since June, as replenishing new car inventory continues to soften prices in the used market.
- This month marks the second consecutive month of price declines, with used car prices down nearly $500 overall since peaking in June.
Used cars have a Price Premium of $7,497 (or 31%) above normal levels, representing a $425 (or 5%) decline from the previous month.
- Their Premium has steadily declined since April, down by over $600 (or 7%) in the past three months, suggesting prices are likely to fall further.
The most expensive parts of the market – which saw the most significant price increases in the spring – are finally correcting, but still not falling below the price levels they saw in early 2023.
- For instance, 1-3 year old (nearly-new) car prices had increased by $1,700 (or 4%) from January to April. Since peaking in the spring, however, they have fallen by $1,693 (or 4%) – almost back to the level where they started the year.
- Similarly, used SUVs had jumped by $3,302 (or 8%) between January and May. Since reaching their peak, they’ve fallen by $561 (or just 1%) – a sizable two-month drop, but not enough to offset the significant gains they saw in the spring.
Used electric vehicles – particularly Teslas – remain a strong buy for consumers who are willing to take the plunge, with prices falling for the 13th straight month.
- Used EVs fell by another $1,200 (or 3%) in July alone, while Teslas are down another $1,800 (or 4%) in the same time frame.
- The average used EV now costs less than $43,000, down over 35% since last summer’s high of $67,400.
- Consumers are taking advantage of the price drops, with sales of used EVs up by 11% and Teslas up by 8%.
- Teslas were the first brand in CoPilot’s Index to fall below normal pricing levels, priced 22% below where we would expect them to be under normal market conditions.
PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE
In July, nearly-new (1-3 year old cars) were listed at an average price of $39,962 – a decline of $600 (or 2%) from last month.
The Premium for this age bracket was $9,031 (or 30%) above projected normal levels – a decrease of $824 (or 9%) since June (accelerating from last month’s 5% Premium drop).
July also marks the fifth consecutive month in which the Premium for nearly-new cars has declined.
In the three-month period between January and April 2023, nearly-new cars had increased in price by $1,653 (or 4%). Since then, they have declined by a total of $1,619 (or 4%) – erasing the gains they experienced in the spring.
Demand for vehicles in this age bracket remains strong, with nearly-new vehicles seeing a 7% spike in sales volume during July – partly a function of the traditionally busy summer buying season.
In July, preowned (4-7 year old cars) had an average listing price of $27,938, a decrease of $439 (or 2%) since June.
- Between January and April 2023, pre-owned car prices had shown slight increases (up $181), before reversing course and dropping in price for the past four months. In that time, they have decreased by nearly $1,000 (or 3%).
- In July, the Price Premium for pre-owned cars was $6,858 (or 33%) above projected normal levels. This represents a $643 (or 9%) decrease in Premium since April, when this age bracket was priced $7,501 (or 35%) above projected normal levels.
In July, older (8-13 year old) used cars had an average listing price of $17,164, a $215 decrease from June.
- Older used cars have fallen steadily in price since April, down by a total of $443 (or 3%) in the past four months
- The Price Premium for older used cars in July was $4,389 (or 34%) above projected normal levels, down by $279 from June.
PRICE PREMIUM BY TYPE OF VEHICLE
SUVs: In July 2023, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $42,958, down by $457 since June, dropping in price for the second month in a row.
Used SUV prices had increased substantially between January and May, up $3,208 (or 8%) in that five-month period.
Since reaching their peak in May, prices have fallen by $561 (or just 1%) – starting to drop back toward normal levels, but not yet making a significant dent in the gains they saw in the spring.
Year-over-year, used SUV prices have fallen by just $696 (or 2%).
Consumers took advantage of used SUV prices starting to correct, with sales up 3% in July.
At $7,815, the Price Premium for used SUVs is now 22% above projected normal levels.
This represents a $779 (or 9%) decline in Premium since June, when used SUVs were priced $8,593 (or 26%) above projected normal levels, and is a sign that prices are likely to fall further.
Used SUVs continue to be the segment closest to returning to normal levels. Year-over-year, its Premium has declined by $1,755 (or 18%).
Minivans: In July 2023, minivans were listed at an average price of $24,680, falling in price for the first time this year, by $376 (or 2%) month-over-month.
Used minivans had steadily increased since February 2023, up by a total of $1,489 (or 6%) since January.
Since July 2022, though, minivan prices have fallen by just 3% (or $649).
The Price Premium for used minivans is now $7,102 (or 40%) above projected normal levels. Over the past four months, this Premium has increased by a staggering $1,150 (or 19%) since its January levels of $5,952 (or 34%).
Year-over-year, however, their Premium has fallen by only $556 (or 7%).
Pickup Trucks: In July 2023, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $40,655, down by $486 (or 1%) since June.
After increasing steadily in price, up by $1,774 (or 5%) between February and May 2023, this marks the second consecutive month in which used pickup prices declined.
Similar to recent price declines seen in used SUVs and minivans, used pickup trucks have yet to fall enough in price to offset the gains they saw in the spring, indicating that there is further for prices to fall.
In July 2023, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $8,097 (or 25%) above projected normal levels – a $708 (or 8%) decrease since June.
After SUVs, pickup trucks remain the used segment second-closest to returning to normal levels, on a percentage basis.
Since July 2022, used pickup truck prices have fallen by $843 in absolute terms, though their Price Premium has declined by $1,687 (or 17%) year-over-year, indicating they’ve become significantly more affordable to consumers in real terms.
PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE
In July, used Tesla prices are now listed at an average of $43,624, down by $1,838 (or 4%) since June.
- In the past month, sales volume has increased by 8%, while inventory has declined by 5%, as consumers take advantage of continually-dropping prices.
- Since Tesla first announced price cuts in late December 2022, prices have fallen by a total of $9,677 (or 18%). In the past year, they have fallen by $25,782 (or 37%).
- In May, used Teslas were the first brand to finally reach normal, pre-COVID pricing levels. Over the past three months, their Premium has continued to see significant declines, currently priced at $12,368 (or 22%) below projected normal, making used Tesla’s the best value on the market.
- Since the Premium for used Teslas peaked in July 2022 (along with gas prices) at $24,534 (or 53%) above projected normal levels, it has since declined by a staggering $36,902 in the past year.
In July, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $42,891, representing a decline of $1,181 (or 3%) since June.
Used electric vehicle prices have been steadily declining since last summer, when prices reached record highs.
Since gas prices reached record highs last summer, used electric vehicles started a steady decline in price as demand slowed. Since June 2022, they have fallen by a staggering $24,511 (or 36%).
In July, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $42,875, representing a decrease of $528 (or 1%) since June. Year-over-year, hybrids have fallen in price by a total of $5,943 (or 12%).
PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND
Domestic Brands:
Domestic Brands:
In July, high-volume domestic brands had an average Price Premium of $8,239 (or 34%), above projected normal levels.
The Premium for domestic brands decreased in July, down by $95 (or 1%) since June.
In July, used Dodges had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $2,796 (or 11%) above projected normal levels. They were closely followed by used Fords, which had a Price Premium of $2,403 (or 8%), above projected normal levels.
This month, Rams became the first domestic brand to reach projected normal levels, currently priced $282 (or 0.7%) below normal – and representing a rare deal in the used car market.
Foreign Brands:
In July, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $6,297 (or 34%), above projected normal levels.
- This represents a $302 (or 5%) decline in Premium since June.
- In July, among foreign brands, used Mitsubishi had the highest Price Premium, listed at $2,986 (or 18%) above projected normal levels.
- They were followed by used Kias and used Toyota, whose July Premiums were $2,614 (or 13%) and $2,460 (or 9%), respectively.
Luxury Brands:
In July, the Price Premium for luxury used car brands was $8,140 (or 26%) above projected normal levels, a $703 (or 8%) decrease from last month.
- Used Genesis vehicles had the highest Price Premium in this category, for the third consecutive month, listed at $5,513 (or 14%) above projected normal levels.
- They were followed by used Cadillacs and used Mercedes-Benz, which had Price Premiums of $4,158 (or 12%) and $3,500 (or 9%), respectively.
METHODOLOGY
CoPilot is a leading car buying app that provides consumers with an expert partner for high-consideration purchases, starting with car buying and ownership. The platform combines massive real-time data with a winning combination of human expertise and AI-powered search to introduce transparency to the shopping, purchasing and ownership journey. The mobile application takes the time, frustration, and guesswork out of the process, empowering people to easily navigate the risks of shopping for high-value items, and to buy with confidence at the right price and the right time.
CoPilot provides free AI-powered search and pricing tools for consumers. CoPilot’s AI-powered Model Discovery Tool provides car comparisons and model recommendations, serving as an intelligent agent to make AI actionable for car shoppers. The tool applies CoPilot’s proprietary analytics to the company’s comprehensive listings database, in order to save time, money, and frustration for car shoppers. The user-friendly chat interface delivers AI-powered analysis to recommend and rank the best cars that meet each shopper’s specific needs within their chosen geographic area. Additionally, CoPilot’s ChatGPT plugin is the first to rank and return real-time listings within ChatGPT’s chat interface.
CoPilot’s pricing tool, Price Pulse, makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, helping them to know what and when to buy, sell or trade-in, using the same data only dealers used to have.
View the press release on this month’s Index report findings here.
Media Contact:
Kerry Close
732-609-2644
