CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index
January 2023 Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: DECEMBER 2022 DATA
CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index measures the differential between what any used car price would have been today if not for the extraordinary dynamics of the past two years, versus how much it is actually worth now, at retail. As it tracks this differential over time, the Return to Normal Index provides the only real-time barometer of the used car market’s recovery, as well as how close individual vehicle segments, brands, and age brackets are to returning to normal pricing levels.
As of December 31, 2022, CoPilot’s Return to Normal Index found that used car prices are dropping consistently, and faster than ever:
Used cars were listed at an average price of $30,899, dropping for the sixth consecutive month. The average used car had a Price Premium of $7,146, or 30.1%, above projected normal levels.
- This represents a 7% decline from last month’s overall Premium of $7,724, which was 32% above then-projected normal levels. It also amounts to a significant 27% relative correction since July 2022, when the overall Price Premium reached a peak of $9,729, or 41%, above normal levels.
- Overall, the average used car Price Premium has fallen by 20% since January 2022.
Prices are falling faster than ever:
- The December price drop of $692, or 2.2%, is the largest monthly deflation since CoPilot’s Index began.
Prices still have a long way to fall:
- With the average Price Premium still at 30%, used car prices in America still have a long way to fall before they return to normal.
- At the current rate of price drops, it will be 10 or 11 months before prices return to normal.
PRICE PREMIUM BY VEHICLE AGE
Cars of all ages have dropped in price significantly, and Price Premiums have moved significantly back towards normal. Older cars are now commanding the highest percentage Premiums.
In December 2022, nearly-new (1-3 year old) cars had a Price Premium of $9,606 (or 31%) above projected normal levels.
- Since the end of 2021, the Price Premium has fallen by a massive 18% (from $11,745 at the same time last year).
The December 2022 Price Premium for 4-7 year old vehicles is $6,731 (or 30%) above projected normal levels. Year-over-year, the Price Premium for these pre-owned vehicles has declined the most, by 24%, from $8,814 in December 2021.
The December 2022 Price Premium for 8-13 year old vehicles is $4,621 (or 35%) above normal - the highest of any age range. Dropping from $5,271 in December 2021, this represents a 12% decline in Premium for older used cars over the past years.
PRICE PREMIUM BY TYPE OF VEHICLE
SUVs: In December, used SUVs were listed at an average price of $40,220, down 3%, or $1,073 month-over-month - a significant saving for the buyer.
- Year-over-year, used SUV prices are down 8%, from an average of $43,496 in December 2021.
At $5,713, the Price Premium for used SUVs is now 17% above projected normal levels.
By comparison, in November, the Price Premium for used SUVs was $6,658, or 19%, above projected normal levels. This represents a substantial 14% drop in Premium in just one month.
Over the past year, the Price Premium for used SUVs has dropped by a staggering 41%, from $9,667 (or 29%) above projected normal levels in December 2021.
With consistently the smallest Price Premium by percentage of all vehicle segments, used SUVs continue to be the segment relatively closest to returning to normal pricing levels.
Minivans: In December, the average listing price for used minivans was $24,214, down $585 (or 2%) since November.
- Over the past year, minivans – along with SUVs – have seen the most substantial price drops. They are also down 8% from their average price of $26,326 in December 2021.
In December, the Price Premium for used minivans was $6,449, or 36%, above projected normal levels.
The Premium for used minivans has declined by 22% year-over-year, when their average price was $8,289 (or 46%) above projected normal levels.
Pickup Trucks: In December, the average listing price for used pickup trucks was $39,916, amounting to a decline of $658 (or about 2%) since the previous month. Year-over-year, the average used truck price fell by a net total of just $376.
In December, the Price Premium for used pickup trucks was $8,111 or 26%, above projected normal levels – the second-smallest Price Premium of all vehicle segments.
This represents a 9% decline in Premium from December 2021, when the Premium was $8,911, or 28%, above normal levels.
PRICE PREMIUM BY FUEL TYPE
- In December, used electric vehicles had an average listing price of $51,516 – a 24% drop from their peak price of $67,926 in July
Used Tesla prices fell once more in December to an average of $53,421, a 25% drop from their peak prices of $71,325 in July.
The Price Premium for used Teslas also dropped in December to $7,275, or a relatively narrow 16%, above projected normal levels.
December is the sixth consecutive month in which the Price Premium for used Teslas has declined.
The Price Premium has fallen by an extraordinary 70% since its peak in July, when it reached a massive $24,452, or 53%, above projected normal levels.
In December, used hybrid vehicles were listed at an average price of $41,897, down 3% since the previous month. Since gas prices started to ease in July, used hybrid prices have fallen by 16% from their peak of $49,729.
PRICE PREMIUM BY BRAND
Domestic Brands:
- In December, used Fords had the highest Price Premium among domestic brands, listed at $7,017, or 28%, above projected normal levels. They were followed by used Chevrolets, which had a Price Premium of $6,449, or 27%, above projected normal levels.
Foreign Brands:
In December, the Price Premium for high-volume foreign brands averaged $6,090, or 34%, above projected normal levels.
- This represents a 22% decline in Premium for foreign brands since December 2021. Year-over-year, foreign brands listing price fell by by 7%.
- In December, high-volume, used Kias had the highest Price Premium among foreign brands, listed at $6,378, or 40%, above projected normal levels. They were followed by used Hyundais, which had a Price Premium of $5,383, or 34%, above projected normal levels, and Toyota, at $5,620 or 25%.
Luxury Brands:
In December, the Price Premium for luxury brands averaged $8,549, or 27%, above projected normal levels.
- This represents a 19% decline in the Premium for luxury brands since December 2021. Luxury brands also fell in average listing price by 2% year-over-year.
- Used Porsches had the highest absolute Price Premium among luxury brands, listed at $15,567, or 23%, above projected normal levels.
- They were followed by used Teslas, which had a Price Premium of $7,275, or a relatively narrow 16%, above projected normal levels.
METHODOLOGY
The Return to Normal Index is drawn from data collected by leading car shopping app CoPilot. CoPilot’s data and proprietary methodology track the online inventory of virtually every dealer in the country, every day, offering real-time analysis of car prices, inventory, and sales. This January report covers data through December 31, 2022. Data and methodology have been refined in this report, for increased sensitivity to market fluctuations. Data may adjust in future, due to changes in methodology and as additional data sources are integrated.
CoPilot provides free pricing tools for consumers and the media. Price Pulse makes it easy for car shoppers to check the current market value and Price Premium for any car, track price changes, and compare years and models to choose the right car and know when to buy. For car owners and sellers, Price Pulse calculates the real-time value of their car, using the same data only dealers used to have, allowing consumers to track how much their vehicle has appreciated, so they can decide whether and when to sell, or negotiate the best deal at trade-in or lease-end.
For media publishers, CoPilot’s Price Pulse offers free, embeddable data tools, allowing journalists and bloggers to integrate interactive charts and tables within their web content, apps, or newsletters, powered by CoPilot’s unique data and analytics.
Media Contact:
Kerry Close
732-609-2644
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