Used Car Prices Expected to Hit Historic Lows in the Southwest This Summer
The impact of COVID-19 and the widespread shutdown of car dealerships have only begun to be felt. In the Southwest, car prices have already dropped 3.6%, but we expect prices to drop an additional 8% within the next three months.
We’ve analyzed our proprietary database of over 6 million car listings from more than 55,000 dealerships to identify which used car models will have the biggest price drops this summer, as well as predict the best times to buy.
Buying too early could mean paying thousands more for the exact same car. Take advantage of massive price drops this summer by using CoPilot’s used car price tracking tool to be alerted whenever prices drop to their expected low-point.
Factors affecting used car prices
A combination of factors are resulting in used car prices falling*:
- Wholesale car prices are down significantly
- Record numbers of off-lease and rental vehicles will hit the market this summer
- New car incentives will have a corresponding impact on the used market
20 Used Cars With the Biggest Upcoming Price Drops
To prepare for the expected price drops, we used our proprietary data to predict which makes and models will have the biggest price drops. While these cars haven’t dropped in price yet, these are the models we’re expecting to drop the most this summer. The list contains price drops of up to 22% from current retail price, with some luxury models expecting to drop over 15% such as the Infiniti Q70 and Jaguar XJ.
Expected Used Car Price Drops: Southwest
2016-2018 Models
March 2020 vs. June 2020
|
Vehicle |
Retail Price (Mar 1, 2020) | Retail Price (Current) | % Change | $ Change | Expected Lowest Price | Expected Price Change |
| 2016 Dodge Charger | $23,094 | $25,227 | 9.24% | $2,133 | $20,323 | -21.24% |
| 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia | $26,824 | $29,176 | 8.77% | $2,352 | $23,605 | -20.77% |
| 2017 Kia Sedona | $18,650 | $19,082 | 2.32% | $432 | $16,039 | -16.32% |
| 2016 Dodge Challenger | $28,465 | $29,383 | 3.23% | $918 | $25,049 | -15.23% |
| 2016 Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class | $20,595 | $21,186 | 2.87% | $591 | $18,124 | -14.87% |
| 2017 Dodge Charger | $25,384 | $26,083 | 2.75% | $698 | $22,338 | -14.75% |
| 2018 Hyundai Tucson | $16,758 | $17,087 | 1.96% | $329 | $14,747 | -13.96% |
| 2017 Audi A6 | $27,462 | $27,970 | 1.85% | $508 | $24,166 | -13.85% |
| 2017 BMW 7 Series | $45,948 | $46,747 | 1.74% | $799 | $40,434 | -13.74% |
| 2018 Cadillac ATS Sedan | $24,566 | $24,954 | 1.58% | $388 | $21,618 | -13.58% |
| 2017 Chrysler 300 | $20,330 | $20,630 | 1.48% | $300 | $17,890 | -13.48% |
| 2018 Dodge Grand Caravan | $16,694 | $16,602 | -0.55% | ($92) | $14,357 | -13.45% |
| 2018 Hyundai Santa Fe Sport | $17,666 | $17,908 | 1.37% | $242 | $15,546 | -13.37% |
| 2017 Infiniti Q60 | $29,202 | $29,576 | 1.28% | $374 | $25,697 | -13.28% |
| 2017 Chevrolet Spark | $10,345 | $10,672 | 3.16% | $327 | $9,310 | -13.16% |
| 2018 Cadillac Escalade | $55,535 | $56,143 | 1.09% | $608 | $48,870 | -13.09% |
| 2018 Volkswagen Jetta | $14,491 | $14,648 | 1.08% | $157 | $12,752 | -13.08% |
| 2016 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited | $29,046 | $29,349 | 1.04% | $303 | $25,560 | -13.04% |
| 2018 Kia Sportage | $16,939 | $17,097 | 0.93% | $158 | $14,906 | -12.93% |
| 2018 GMC Yukon | $44,374 | $44,752 | 0.85% | $378 | $39,049 | -12.85% |
| 2017 Mitsubishi Outlander Sport | $13,771 | $13,886 | 0.83% | $115 | $12,119 | -12.83% |
| 2016 Toyota Sequoia | $33,398 | $33,661 | 0.79% | $263 | $29,390 | -12.79% |
| 2017 Ford Flex | $19,342 | $19,486 | 0.74% | $144 | $17,021 | -12.74% |
| 2018 Nissan Rogue Sport | $17,255 | $17,376 | 0.70% | $121 | $15,184 | -12.70% |
| 2018 Infiniti Q50 | $26,223 | $26,394 | 0.65% | $172 | $23,076 | -12.65% |
| 2017 Dodge Challenger | $27,302 | $27,472 | 0.62% | $171 | $24,026 | -12.62% |
| 2018 Chevrolet Equinox | $18,076 | $18,173 | 0.54% | $97 | $15,907 | -12.54% |
20 Used Cars Whose Prices Have Already Dropped
Though the biggest price drops are yet to come, some models have already begun to reach their lowest expected prices. These models are the best buys currently available - with some large price drops on luxury models like Teslas and the Volvo S-Series, as well as some substantial drops on reliable commuters, there are plenty of great deals already available.
Surprisingly, pickup trucks make a large appearance on this list, which isn’t typical in other regions. CoPilot is not predicting major price drops for pickup trucks due to high demand and low inventory, but that is not the case in the Southwest region - some models of pickups are showing price drops of 9%, but these deals aren’t expected to last.
Used Car Prices That Have Already Dropped: South East
2016-2018 models
March 2020 vs. June 2020
|
Vehicle |
Retail Price (Mar 1, 2020) | Retail Price (Current) | % Change | $ Change | Expected Lowest Price | Expected Price Change |
| 2018 Jaguar XE | $27,189 | $23,110 | -15.00% | ($4,079) | $23,926 | 3.00% |
| 2016 BMW X6 | $39,615 | $34,525 | -12.85% | ($5,090) | $35,653 | 2.85% |
| 2018 MINI Countryman | $27,499 | $24,265 | -11.76% | ($3,234) | $24,749 | 1.76% |
| 2017 Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD | $43,725 | $39,522 | -9.61% | ($4,203) | $40,227 | 1.61% |
| 2018 Land Rover Range Rover Sport | $79,214 | $70,084 | -11.53% | ($9,130) | $71,293 | 1.53% |
| 2018 Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD | $44,879 | $40,667 | -9.38% | ($4,212) | $41,289 | 1.38% |
| 2018 Chevrolet Silverado 3500HD | $47,558 | $43,346 | -8.86% | ($4,212) | $43,754 | 0.86% |
| 2016 Honda Fit | $13,658 | $12,183 | -10.80% | ($1,475) | $12,292 | 0.80% |
| 2016 Hyundai Elantra GT | $11,750 | $10,491 | -10.72% | ($1,259) | $10,575 | 0.72% |
| 2017 BMW X6 | $45,177 | $40,365 | -10.65% | ($4,812) | $40,659 | 0.65% |
| 2017 Nissan Versa Note | $10,777 | $9,631 | -10.64% | ($1,146) | $9,700 | 0.64% |
| 2018 Land Rover Discovery Sport | $31,288 | $27,973 | -10.60% | ($3,316) | $28,160 | 0.60% |
| 2018 Cadillac CT6 Sedan | $43,371 | $37,934 | -12.54% | ($5,438) | $38,167 | 0.54% |
| 2018 Volvo XC90 | $42,251 | $37,858 | -10.40% | ($4,393) | $38,026 | 0.40% |
| 2016 Scion iA | $11,789 | $10,355 | -12.17% | ($1,434) | $10,375 | 0.17% |
| 2017 Volvo S90 | $30,908 | $27,208 | -11.97% | ($3,700) | $27,199 | -0.03% |
| 2016 Chevrolet Sonic | $9,624 | $8,666 | -9.95% | ($958) | $8,662 | -0.05% |
| 2016 Ram 3500 | $37,304 | $34,389 | -7.81% | ($2,915) | $34,320 | -0.19% |
| 2017 Jaguar XF | $28,291 | $25,013 | -11.59% | ($3,278) | $24,896 | -0.41% |
| 2017 Mitsubishi Mirage | $8,716 | $7,887 | -9.51% | ($829) | $7,844 | -0.49% |
| 2017 GMC Sierra 2500HD | $46,199 | $42,849 | -7.25% | ($3,350) | $42,503 | -0.75% |
| 2016 Toyota Sienna | $21,735 | $18,859 | -13.23% | ($2,876) | $18,692 | -0.77% |
| 2016 Volvo XC60 | $20,480 | $18,599 | -9.18% | ($1,881) | $18,432 | -0.82% |
| 2016 Chevrolet Spark | $9,198 | $8,375 | -8.95% | ($824) | $8,279 | -1.05% |
| 2016 Kia Forte | $11,601 | $10,571 | -8.88% | ($1,031) | $10,441 | -1.12% |
| 2017 Chevrolet Sonic | $11,321 | $10,334 | -8.72% | ($987) | $10,189 | -1.28% |
| 2016 Subaru Crosstrek | $18,968 | $16,953 | -10.62% | ($2,015) | $16,692 | -1.38% |
Brands With the Biggest Price Drops
In these market conditions, brands with high inventory will experience the largest price drops. This will be compounded by brands that have multiple sedan models. Sedans are expected to experience large price drops and brands such as Scion, Volvo, Kia, Mazda, and Acura offer multiple sedan models.
Brands with the Biggest Price Drops
2016-2018 models
March 2020 - June 2020
| Segment | % Change |
| Crossover | -4.20% |
| Sedan | -3.80% |
| Truck | -2.70% |
| SUV | -3.40% |
| Hatchback | -5.20% |
| Convertible | -0.50% |
| Minivan | -4.50% |
| Wagon | -5.80% |
| Coupe | -2.30% |
| Exotic | -6.70% |
Used Car Price Drops by Segment
Currently, biggest price drops are coming from minivans and hatchbacks across all makes and models with minivans and hatchbacks dropping 5.2% since March. As mentioned earlier, we expect the largest price drops to come from sedans, but we anticipate those drops to reach the bottom in mid-July. Sedans have seen a small drop of 3.6% since March. Trucks are seeing the lowest price drops of 2.8% and we do not anticipate that number to change in the future.
Price changes by used car segment
2016-2018 models
March 2020 - June 2020
Summer 2020 is likely to be the best time to buy a used car this decade
With multiple market and economic factors impacting the used car market simultaneously, CoPilot expects this summer to be the best time to buy a used car this decade. Since prices are likely to shift rapidly as the market continues to correct, timing will be much more important than it normally is when car shopping - missing the ‘sweet spot’ by even a single week could end up costing you thousands of dollars on some models. To help you stay up-to-date with the best deals, we built a tool to help track the large price changes we’re expecting this summer. Most importantly, it will alert you whenever used car prices have reached their lowest point so you know you’re getting the best deal possible.
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